Abstract
Foreign trade is a major factor in a country’s economic development since it facilitates the integration of the national economy into the global system by granting access to foreign resources, technologies, and markets. In the context of globalisation, economic processes are constantly changing, requiring continuous monitoring and analysis of international economic relations. For Ukraine, which has undergone considerable economic and political changes in recent years, the study of foreign trade dynamics, particularly the structure of imports and exports, is particularly relevant. The purpose of this study was to comprehensively investigate changes in Ukraine’s foreign trade from 2017 to 2024, specifically to identify key trends in trade balance dynamics, structural shifts in exports and imports, and to determine prospective development vectors of export-import activities. To fulfil this purpose, the study analysed trade balance dynamics, examined the dynamics of the commodity structure of Ukraine’s foreign trade through the analysis of the shares of product groups in total trade turnover, assessed the geographic structure of imports and exports considering changes in international trade partnerships, and analysed changes in the structure of service exports and imports. The analysis of Ukraine’s foreign trade for 2017–2024 revealed key trends and issues. In the trade in goods, a persistent negative balance was observed due to reliance on energy imports and the raw material orientation of exports. In contrast, the services sector showed a positive trade balance, driven by the growth of the IT sector. Changes in the geographical structure of trade highlighted a shift towards European markets and increased reliance on imports from China, affecting the commodity structure of Ukraine’s export-import activities, with substantial implications for the country’s economic strategy. The findings obtained can be used to shape economic and trade policies aimed at optimising foreign economic relations and reducing risks associated with dependence on specific suppliers and countries
Keywords
foreign trade; geographic diversification; trade balance; export services; energy imports
References
[1] Ambroziak, Ł., Szczepaniak, I., & Bułkowska, M. (2024). Competitive position of Polish and Ukrainian food producers in the EU market. Agriculture, 14(12), article number 2104. doi: 10.3390/agriculture14122104.
[2] Bondarenko, S., Nikishyna, O., Zerkina, O., & Shaposhnikov, V. (2024). Transformation of Ukrainian agricultural exports in the context of Russian military aggression: Structural changes, adaptive mechanisms and global implications. Social Development and Security, 14(3), 116-142. doi: 10.33445/sds.2024.14.3.9.
[3] D’Ingiullo, D., Odoardi, I., Quaglione, D., & Di Berardino, C. (2024). Exploring the nexus between exports’ economic complexity and institutional quality: Insights from Italian provinces. Regional Studies, Regional Science, 11(1), 667695. doi: 10.1080/21681376.2024.2405580.
[4] Don, O., & Yariz, N. (2024). Analysis of the product structure of Ukraines trade with the EU. Galician Economic Journal, 89(4), 190-201. doi: 10.33108/galicianvisnyk_tntu2024.04.190.
[5] Havrylyuk, I. (2024). External economic activity of Ukraine with EU countries. Economy and Society, 59. doi: 10.32782/2524-0072/2024-59-3.
[6] Ishchuk, S., & Sozanskyy, L. (2024). Ukrainian commodity export: Challenges in the conditions of war and post-war reconstruction. Regional Economy, 111(1), 81-94. doi: 10.36818/1562-0905-2024-1-8.
[7] Jacyna-Gołda, I., Shmygol, N., Gavkalova, N., & Salwin, M. (2024). Sustainable development of intermodal freight transportation – through the integration of logistics flows in Ukraine and Poland. Sustainability, 16(1), article number 267. doi: 10.3390/su16010267.
[8] Janáková Sujová, A., Marcineková, K., & Kupčák, V. (2023). Impacts of foreign trade on the economy of woodbased sectors generating different levels of value added in the Slovak and Czech republics. Forests, 14(5), article number 1029. doi: 10.3390/f14051029.
[9] Labenko, O., Sobchenko, T., Hutsol, T., Cupiał, M., Mudryk, K., Kocira, A., Pavlenko-Didur, K., Klymenko, O., & Neuberger, P. (2022). Project environment and outlook within the scope of technologically integrated European green deal in EU and Ukraine. Sustainability, 14(14), article number 8759. doi: 10.3390/su14148759.
[10] Leshchenko, K., & Leshchenko, S. (2023). Determining priorities for Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction in the conditions of preparation for EU membership. Economics of Development, 22(3), 42-51. doi: 10.57111/econ/3.2023.42.
[11] Liang, J., & Qiao, C. (2024). The impact of digital trade development on regional green innovation. Sustainability, 16(22), article number 10090. doi: 10.3390/su162210090.
[12] Luo, H., & Qu, X. (2023). Export trade, absorptive capacity, and high-quality economic development in China. Systems, 11(2), article number 54. doi: 10.3390/systems11020054.
[13] Malуarets, L., Norik, L., Budarin, O., & Skliar, T. (2024a). Features of the development of export-import activity of economic entities of the public sector of the economy. The Problems of Economy, 2, 94-107. doi: 10.32983/2222-07122024-2-94-107.
[14] Malуarets, L.M., Norik, L.O., Denysiuk, O.V., & Skliar T.P. (2024b). A comparative analysis of exports of services in the EU countries and Ukraine. The Problems of Economy, 3, 48-57. doi: 10.32983/2222-0712-2024-3-48-57.
[15] Mishrif, A., & Khan, A. (2024). Do free trade agreements facilitate FDI spillover effects on domestic firms? Empirical evidence from Oman. Economies, 12(6), article number 141. doi: 10.3390/economies12060141.
[16] Ostashko, T., & Venger, V. (2023). Ukraine’s trade policy in Asia under multipolar globalization. Economy and Forecasting, 2, 82-104. doi: 10.15407/econforecast2023.02.082.
[17] Pelekh, O. (2021). Structural changes in exports and imports of Ukrainian goods at the beginning of the 21st century. Academy Review, 2(55), 79-92. doi: 10.32342/2074-5354-2021-2-55-8.
[18] Privarnikova, I. (2024). Specifications of export-import operations in the field of services. Management and Entrepreneurship: Trends of Development, 1(27), 89-103. doi: 10.26661/2522-1566/2024-1/27-08.
[19] State Statistics Service of Ukraine. (n.d.). Foreign trade in goods. Retrieved from https://ukrstat.gov.ua/ metaopus/2022/2_05_01_01_2022.htm.
[20] Sytnik, I., & Stopochkin, A. (2023). Methodology for assessing the level of electricity self-sufficiency in European Union countries. Energies, 16(18), article number 6597. doi: 10.3390/en16186597.
[21] Trusova, N., Demchenko, I., Kotvytska, N., Hevchuk, A., Yeremenko, D., & Prus, Yu. (2021). Foreign-economic priorities of the development of investment infrastructure of agri-food production entities. Scientific Horizons, 24(5), 92-107. doi: 10.48077/scihor.24(5).2021.92-107.
[22] Tul, S., Samoilyk, I., Klymenko, V., & Shkurupii, O. (2023). Transformation of the Ukrainian agri-food industry in the context of global digitalization. Engineering Proceedings, 40(1), article number 26. doi: 10.3390/engproc2023040026.
[23] UN Trade and Development. (n.d.). Merchandise: Total trade and share, annual. Retrieved from https://unctadstat. unctad.org/datacentre/dataviewer/US.TradeMerchTotal.
[24] UN Trade and Development. (n.d.b). Services (BPM6): Trade and growth by main service-category, quarterly. Retrieved from https://unctadstat.unctad.org/datacentre/dataviewer/US.TotAndComServicesQuarterly.
[25] Yeerken, A., & Deng, F. (2023). Digital service trade and labor income share-empirical research on 48 countries. Sustainability, 15(6), article number 5468. doi: 10.3390/su15065468.
[26] Zhang, Z. (2024). A comparative analysis of the impact of import and export trade on the economy between China and the United States. Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences, 108, 27-35. doi: 10.54254/27541169/108/20241923.
